Climate and Health Outlook Portal
View this month's climate-related hazards forecasted in your community including heat, wildfire, and drought, in the interactive maps below.
Introduction
The health and well-being of people living in the U.S. is threatened by climate change. Much of the country is experiencing more frequent and severe climate-related disasters and extreme weather events, exacerbating existing health threats and creating new public health challenges. These impacts are felt most acutely in communities that already face inequitable exposure to environmental and health burdens. Additionally, climate change is exacerbating disparities in social and environmental drivers of health, worsening health inequities. While climate change will increasingly threaten our health, actions taken today, like preparing for potential climate-related hazards, can help protect our communities – especially those most at risk.
The Office of Climate Change and Health Equity's Climate and Health Outlook , published monthly, is the first seasonal climate forecast for health in the U.S. The Outlook consists of a PDF summary, which includes climate-related hazard forecasts and associated health impacts, and a webpage with additional hazard-specific information and resources for proactive action. This accompanying Climate and Health Outlook Portal features interactive maps with county-level heat, wildfire, and drought forecasts for the current month along with county-level data on individual risk factors that may make people more vulnerable to negative health outcomes from these climate hazards. This tool can be used by emergency response and health care professionals to plan and prepare for the potential impacts of these climate hazards, as well as by members of the public who are interested in learning more about the climate-related risks they may face in their county.
All Hazards
This interactive map shows county-level forecasts for heat, wildfire, and drought in the U.S. this month, as well as county-level individual risk factors that may increase vulnerability to the impacts of these climate-related hazards. These social, environmental, and health indicators characterize an increased risk of negative health outcomes for individuals who have these risk factors and are exposed to relevant climate-related hazards. County-level information on these risk factors only shows up for counties that are both in the top quartile of U.S. counties (i.e., have "a high number of people") for these risk factors and are experiencing one or more relevant hazard(s) in the current month. Information on risk factors will not show up for counties that are not forecast to experience heat, wildfire, and/or drought in the current month.
Heat forecasts are updated around the 22nd day of each month to show the forecast for the following month. Wildfire forecasts are updated on the first business day of each month to show the forecast for that month. Drought forecasts are updated on the last business day of each month to show the forecast for the following month.
Individual Climate-Related Hazards
Below are individual maps showing county-level forecasts for heat, wildfire, and drought in the U.S. this month. Accompanying these maps is information on how climate change impacts these hazards, populations at greater risk of negative health impacts from these hazards, and how these hazards impact health.
Extreme Heat
Extreme heat occurs when temperatures are much hotter and/or humid than average. Extreme heat is increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change.
The heat outlook is based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s probabilistic outlook of temperatures being above, below, or near normal each month. A county’s ‘normal’ temperature is based on the 30-year average from 1991–2020. An ‘extremely hot day’ is when the daily maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile value of the historical temperature distribution in that county. This platform only shows counties with 5 or more projected extremely hot days. The data table for this map can be found here . You can also download the underlying data in a tabular format.
Some populations face certain risk factors that put them at increased risk of negative health impacts from extreme heat, such as:
- Older adults aged 65 years and older.
- Young children and infants, particularly those aged 5 and younger.
- People who are pregnant.
- People with disabilities.
- People who have chronic health conditions, such as asthma, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, substance use disorders, depression, or anxiety.
- People who take certain medications that increase sensitivity to heat.
- People who exercise or work outdoors.
- People who work indoors in hot environments.
- People who live alone.
- People who are living in poverty.
Heat affects health in many ways. For example, extreme heat can lead to:
- An increased risk of hospitalization for heart disease.
- Heat exhaustion, which can lead to heat stroke if not treated, can cause critical illness, brain injury, and even death.
- Worsening asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as heat increases the production of ground-level ozone.
- Dehydration, which can lead to kidney injury and blood pressure problems. Some kidney damage can become irreversible with repeated or untreated injury.
- Increased risk of violence, crime, and suicide, adding to the rates of depression and anxiety already associated with climate change.
Heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the U.S.; however, heat-related deaths and illnesses are preventable. Check out the Climate and Health Outlook Extreme Heat webpage for resources to reduce health risks associated with heat.
Wildfire
A wildfire is a fire that burns out of control in a natural area. Increased heat and extended drought due to climate change have increased the risk and extent of wildfires in the U.S. Smoke and ash from wildfires can travel downwind and affect air quality hundreds of miles away from the fire.
The wildfire outlook identifies areas with above, below, and near normal significant wildland fire potential using the most recent weather, climate, and fuels data available. This platform only shows areas that are projected to have above normal significant fire potential.
Some populations face certain risk factors that put them at increased risk of negative health impacts from wildfire and wildfire smoke, such as:
- Older adults aged 65 years and older.
- Children.
- People who are pregnant.
- People with disabilities.
- People who have chronic health conditions, such as asthma, cardiovascular disease, depression, or anxiety.
- People who exercise or work outdoors.
- People who are living in poverty.
Wildfire, including the fire itself and smoke from the fire, affects health in many ways. For example, wildfire can lead to:
- Burns through contact with flames and hot surfaces, as well as chemical and electrical burns.
- Reduced lung function, bronchitis, exacerbation of asthma, and cardiovascular effects like heart failure from wildfire smoke.
- Severe heat-related illness (such as heat stroke) and rhabdomyolysis (muscle breakdown) for firefighters.
- Increased risk of reduced birth weight and preterm birth for pregnant people when exposed to smoke.
- Increased risk of lung infections due to the potential impact of wildfire smoke on the immune system.
Negative health impacts due to wildfire and wildfire smoke are preventable. Check out the Climate and Health Outlook Wildfire webpage for resources to reduce health risks associated with wildfire.
Drought
Drought occurs when there is a lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, leading to a water shortage. Warmer temperatures, increased precipitation variability, and decreased snowpack due to climate change increase the risk of drought.
The drought outlook predicts areas where drought will persist, develop, improve, or be removed. Risk factors only show up in areas where drought is projected to persist or develop.
Some populations face certain risk factors that put them at increased risk of negative health impacts from drought, such as:
- Older adults aged 65 years and older.
- Children.
- People who are pregnant.
- People with disabilities.
- People who have chronic health conditions, such as asthma, depression, or anxiety.
- People who exercise or work outdoors.
- People who work in agriculture.
- People who are living in poverty.
Drought affects health in many ways. For example, drought can lead to:
- Increased risk of malnutrition due to low crop yields, which can result in rising food prices and shortages.
- Increased risk of allergies, asthma, and other respiratory symptoms due to an increased number of particulates like dust and pollen in the air, which can irritate the bronchial passages and lungs.
- Increased risk of Valley Fever from dust storms, which can spread the fungus that causes the disease.
- Increased risk of vector- and water-borne diseases when waterways become stagnant due to lack of flowing water.
- Increased incidence of mood disorders, domestic violence, and suicide due to the complex economic consequences of drought.
- Poor-quality drinking water and inadequate water for hygiene and sanitation during long-term droughts.
Negative health impacts due to drought are preventable. Check out the Climate and Health Outlook Drought webpage for resources to reduce health risks associated with drought.
Risk Factors by County
County-level individual risk factors may increase vulnerability to the impacts of extreme heat, drought, and wildfire. These social, environmental, and health indicators characterize an increased risk of negative health outcomes for individuals who have these risk factors and are exposed to relevant climate-related hazards.
County-level information on these risk factors is shown on the map by the number of risk factors that are in the top quartile of U.S. counties (i.e., have "a high number of people") for each individual county. For example, a county that is shaded in red has more than 5 risk factors that are in the top quartile of U.S. counties.
Clicking on an individual county will open a popup that lists the risk factors that are in the top quartile in that county.
This list of risk factors is not comprehensive but is meant to provide an idea of who may be at increased risk of negative health outcomes from these hazards. A list of all risk factors that are considered in this map can be found on our Individual Risk Factors page.